Thursday, April 06, 2006

Perceptions of risk

Human beings are notoriously incapable of realistically estimating risk in situations involving emotions like fear or greed (e.g. the stock market). Immediately after the 9-11 bombing, millions of Americans swore they would never fly on airplanes again. With 6,000 + flights over the continental US every day, one's chances of being on a hijacked airliner - even if there were a hijacking every day - would be about 1 in 6,000. This is roughly the same as one's chances of getting run over by a bus. Yet thousands of people would drive to Las Vegas (or Atlantic City, etc.) in hopes of beating the odds against the casinos while cleverly cheating death at the hands of hijackers.